Bitcoin falls to the $40K support pad, failing to cross the $45K mark.
Retesting the $40K breakout and the rising channel breakout.
A post-retest reversal can raise the BTC price to break the $45K barrier.
Tracing back its steps, Bitcoin takes a sharp fall this week, potentially the first bearish week after eight weeks of bull run. However, this Sunday’s closing price should be below $43,786 for this to happen. This gives enough time for the buyers to reclaim the trend momentum and potentially push the BTC price higher than $45K if the retest phase succeeds.
Starting the week with a 5.81% fall this Monday, the profit booking spree cuts out a significant amount of last week’s bull run. Currently, the BTC price retests the $40K break and is also a critical trendline breakout.
BTC Price Chart Signals A Pivotal Juncture At Play
The 1D price chart shows a bullish breakout rally of a rising channel and the $40K mark, failing to break above the $45K barrier. This results in a pullback phase and retests the channel breakout. Further, the gradual increment in selling pressure warns of a longer correction, potentially sliding to $37,700.
Source – Tradingview
At present, the BTC price trades at $41,030 and forms a bearish candle with an intraday fall of 1.03%. Resting above the broken trendline, Bitcoin struggles to gain momentum for a post-retest reversal. Nevertheless, the frequent long-tail formations tease a bounceback, and the fall in trading volume supports the possibility of reversal.
On-Chain Data Shows That HODLers Always Win
With more than 90% pullback during the 2011 bear market, the pullback trend from ATH has been mostly declining. From 85% in 2015 to 75% in 2020, the pullback phase from ATH is losing intensity, except for the black swan event of FTX in 2022.
Source: On-Chain College
With the larger picture showcasing a rise in Bitcoin price since its inception, the long-term holders are winning on paper. Therefore, in the long-term term, the BTC price prediction remains optimistic and hints at $100K next year.
Is It Worth Buying This Dip In Bitcoin?
If Bitcoin shows sustainability above $40K, then the buyers will likely manage to revive the uptrend and aim 25% higher to reach the $50,000 mark. Potentially creating a new 52-week high, the BTC price will likely enter 2024 at levels greater than $50,000.
On the flip side, a failure to sustain above $40K will likely prolong the correction spree to a dangerous extent. In this case, Bitcoin will likely retest the crucial support of the rising trendline and the 50D EMA at $37,700.